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Non-Farm Payroll – Crazy Whipsaw Action

Posted on 05. Mar, 2010 by Moderator.

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What a crazy day this has been. Both Non-Farm Payroll and US unemployment rate came out better than expected. There was a slightly bearish movement on EUR/USD just minutes before release, and bullish on USD/JPY. Right at release EUR/USD dropped about 50 pips within a minute and USD/JPY spiked up about 75 pips. Shortly after, EUR/USD turned around and is currently located above pre-release, while USD/JPY is still heading higher. I was trading USD/JPY, because of the tendency in the last couple of month; it is simply easier, and this month was exactly the same. I was trying to trade the spike, for the first time with FXCM. I was really amazed with the slippage. It took at least a minute before my order was executed. Nonetheless I still go a decent entry and made some 30 pips. All in all a really interesting day with a lot of volatility. That´s it for me. I will close the laptop down, and go grab a beer. Enjoy the weekend everyone.

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Non-Farm Payroll Tomorrow

Posted on 04. Mar, 2010 by Moderator.

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Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month and Non-Farm payroll numbers will come out; the supernova of forex trading. Trading the Non-Farm Payroll can be very lucrative or it can blow up your account within a couple of seconds if you don’t know what you are dealing with. In the last couple of month I have had some very good entries, trading this event. As always, there are a couple of webinars that will take you through this event, and try to explain the reasoning behind the moves in the market, in real time. Although I have not received any email about it yet, I expect that Wayne McDonell will host a webinar. I have not attended his webinars but I have seen some recaps on YouTube, and they are rather good. Currensee and Alex Kazmarck will also host a webinar, limited to total of 100 people. You have to be a member of Currensee to join the webinar with Alex Kazmarck, and I think you need to be a member of FxStreet to join Wayne. However becoming a member is free. If this is your first time trading the Non-Farm Payroll, I highly recommend you follow someone who has been trading it before. You can also join me in my chat room, as I expect to take a trade shortly after release.

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Non-Farm Payroll Recap

Posted on 09. Jan, 2010 by Jakob.

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Yesterday the Non-Farm Payroll number came out from US, and things went pretty crazy. The number came out worse than expected, and although it was not nearly as bad as it was a couple of months ago, we still got a strong reaction on the market. In the last couple of month, we have seen that the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY tend to have an initial spike in the same direction, and then after a minute or two the EUR/USD would turn around, whereas the USD/JPY would continue in the same direction. Yesterday was different; the EUR/USD spiked up immediately and the USD/JPY spiked down. This move kept going for about one hour and both the EUR/USD and USD/JPY moved close to 110 pips in this period. The following two hours we got a complete retracement all the way back to pre-release, and then finally it turned and ended up rather close to the top and bottom of the initial spike. Wayne McDonell from FX Bootcamp has recorded a video where he covers all the details of the NFP, and shows you exactly how to post trade the Non-Farm Payroll. If you are new to trading the Non-Farm Payroll, you might want to check it out. The only thing I don’t like about his approach is that he is talking about Fibonacci retracement and double tops on a one minute time frame; to me this seems completely irrelevant. However, it is still worth watching. Read more... (245 words, estimated 59 secs reading time)

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Non-Farm Payroll Trade

Posted on 04. Oct, 2009 by Jakob.

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Last Friday we had the Non-Farm Payroll numbers, and I took one trade, as planned. Actually I had a pending order waiting to be triggered, but this never happened, and I closed it before the NFP. The numbers came out worse than expected, and I got in on a long EUR/USD trade, about 20 minutes after the numbers was released. I got in at 1.4514, risking 2% on a 100 pip stop loss, and closed the trade at 1.4580 for a profit of 66 pips, or 1.32% return on account balance. This is definitely a better start of the month, compared to last month’s NFP trades. This time I traded almost exactly according to my plan, although I was risking 2% when I had actually decided to trade 1%. All the details of this trade was, as always, posted on twitter, with a warning some minutes before the actual trade. I am looking to change the way I send these signals, so I you want to be updated, but sure to sign up for my newsletter.

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