TradeProfits

EUR/USD and Non Farm Payroll

Posted on 05. Jan, 2012 by Jakob.

Going through the different time zones on a chart can be a really healthy choice every now and then; this is specially true if you have been starring at the 5-minute chart all day long. Yesterday we have had a really good move down on EUR/USD and today we will get the first Non Farm Payroll numbers for 2012 which could cause some volatile moves in the market, so make sure to play it safe.  Read more... (279 words, 1 image, estimated 1:07 mins reading time)

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Before NFP and a Pre-130 Pip Drop

Posted on 03. Feb, 2011 by Jakob.

I am currently watching Jean-Claude Trichet and over the last hour EUR/USD has dropped more than 130 pips. This move is somewhat reflected in USD/CHF which has been moving up around 70 pips but Cable and AUD/USD has not really shown a lot of downside. Right now I am somewhat indecisive as I don’t really want to short a pair after a 130 pip move down, however it sure seems counterintuitive to go in on a long trade when everyone else, clearly is selling. However, with the expectations to NFP tomorrow we are likely to see a bit more of pre-sentiment buying into $. But then again, the bull move on EUR/USD over the course of the week really did come as a surprise for me, so I would prefer to stay out of the market for now, and wait for tomorrow after NFP and try to catch something on a post-News retracement kind of setup, if we do hit a good deviation. As my laptop just broke down, I think I will take rest of the day of and be back tomorrow for NFP. In the meantime, Casey has post on trading rules which you can check out right here.

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Weekly Outlook on the FX Market

Posted on 30. Jan, 2011 by Jakob.

I thought I would write an outlook for the upcoming week, and now, a couple of hours later, I am finally done. This sure did take me a bit longer than expected, simply because I was working with some new way to present this. So I emailed all my readers about an hour ago with the newly finished weekly outlook, and emails are starting to drop in with friendly feedback – Thanks guys. So if you are on my list, you should have a copy in your inbox by now. If not, you can grab a copy below, if you simply give me a tweet or facebook link. There should be some really good opportunities in the upcoming week, and all my ideas are posted in the outlook. I hope you guys find it useful. Let me know what you think.  Read more... (142 words, estimated 34 secs reading time)

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Profit Mongers – Monday Trading Signal 01-05-2011

Posted on 07. Jan, 2011 by Sir Pipsalot.

Another excellent trade on UK Service PMI, both for spike and afterspike traders. Today 2 very big reports, I will add NFP soon.

0700 CAD Employment Change (20K expected, 15.2k prior, -10.0k to +35.0k range)

-Affliated Reports
CAD Unemployment Rate (7.7% expected, 7.6% prior, 7.6% to 7.9% range)  Read more... (538 words, estimated 2:09 mins reading time)

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NFP in Retrospect

Posted on 04. Dec, 2010 by Jakob.

Yesterday we had Non-Farm Employment change and Unemployment rate from US along with a bunch of other fundamental news releases. There was an expectation of NFP to come out in the range of 100K to 200K and a close consensus to just around 150K, whereas the Unemployment rate was expected to come out at 9.6%. However, at the actual release of Non-Farm Payrolls resulted in a less than expected release with a gain of 39K jobs and unemployment rate also showing a worse than expected result which came out at 9.8%. In comparison, last month we got better than expected result, and that along with the FOCM statement about the QE we slowly started to see EUR/USD rollover and have, in recent weeks been plummeting. Obviously the NFP released flipped everything upside down, and we saw an immediate bearish move on USD, and strong risk sentiment looking at more risk aversion obviously supporting the JPY and normally also the USD but as whit NFP being US news, obviously the JPY appreciates. Specially the USD/JPY spiked down hard and EUR/USD continued its daily move towards higher highs. In relation to spike trading, I think it was interesting to notice that cable was lacking in the initial spike in comparison to other major pairs. There were good opportunities to enter both on spike trades along with post-spike retracement trades, specially on non-JPY pairs. However , a spike trading strategy would have to be entered solely based on headline numbers, with a focus on one major news release (read: NFP). All in all, yesterday had been a perfect day to trade solely based on price action, but unfortunately it’s not like that every time, thus not a viable trading strategy. Analyzing the numbers and making sense of all the news releases and entering on trades in matter of milliseconds simultaneously in a rational manner is, for the majority of retail trader an impossible task. In order to enter on trades around these kinds of news releases, you need to have a well-defined trading plan, where there in my mind so be very strict limitations, specially in relation to the number of trades you are willing to take on, and if the trade is to be based on price action, fundamentals, of technical, etc. When this is said, NFP is the supernova event, and if you have a strict trading plan intact, there is always an amazing opportunity to get in positions with very favorable risk:reward ratios.  Read more... (517 words, estimated 2:04 mins reading time)

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Profit Mongers – Friday Trading Signal 12-03-2010

Posted on 03. Dec, 2010 by Sir Pipsalot.

Hey folks,

My market outlook for EUR/USD from yesterday is unchanged, so for trend insight, see my previous signal. This update is just for Friday’s upcoming news.  Read more... (1318 words, estimated 5:16 mins reading time)

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Non-Farm Payroll Tomorrow

Posted on 02. Dec, 2010 by Jakob.

Tomorrow will be the first Friday of December and we will have Non-Farm Payroll numbers out of the US; the supernova for forex traders. Today we had rate announcement from ECB, out unchanged as expected but later at the press conference we did see a lot of volatility in the market, and currently we have EUR/USD trading just around the 1.3160 level. It will be really interesting to see how the numbers come out and which kind of market reaction we will get. Now I will not be trading anything in the hours just before the news and I will do my best to be square at the time of release, but currently I might be looking to get in on a possible short position on EUR/USD if we get another bull move, and a possible long trade on USD/JPY if we see another strong move to the downside. Now based on recent market activity, this might seem a bit counterintuitive but I think there is some possible profit potential in these setups. Anyhow, NFP should prove a good opportunity to get in some profitable positions, but if you have no experience trading news releases like these, I highly recommend that you apply strict money management, and make sure to get these stops in immediately, as we often see a spike in one direction, just to completely reverse and move strongly in the other direction. Play it as safe as possible, focus on money management and don’t open up too many trades. Good luck guys!

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Non-Farm Payroll – Live Trading

Posted on 07. Oct, 2010 by Jakob.

It sure seems like everyone is specialized in Non-Farm Payroll trading these days. At least there are a lot of options for you who would like to trade the event live with a coach on the sideline. This month the guys from Options University are hosting a free event where they will take you through the event and tell you how to trade it, which you can sign up for right here. Currensee is also throwing a webinar for all their members (joining Currensee is free of charge) where the SpotEuro Trader Alex Kazmarck will share his thoughts on how to trade this supernova event. I haven’t received any email from FxStreet but I am sure that Wayne McDonald will be running his monthly webinar as well. There are plenty of opportunities to get some guidance during this news release. If you are new to forex trading, I highly recommend you to keep your cool, during this event!

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The Day Before NFP – Daily Outlook

Posted on 07. Oct, 2010 by Jakob.

Tomorrow we will have Non-Farm Payroll from US and I actually expected a less volatile week that what we have seen so far. USD/JPY plummeted down below the 83 level and even broke the recent intervention level. So far, we have not seen any more action from BOJ, and I assume they will wait and see how risk sentiment and NFP will affect the pair tomorrow before jumping in with another round intervention. I am only looking for possible buy´s on any JPY cross as intervention is likely to give us a couple of hundred pips to the upside, thus giving us a really favorable risk:reward if we just have a bit of patience. Rumor has it, that it is only a matter of time before BOJ will intervene once again, and I sure don’t want to get caught on the wrong foot. EUR/USD and AUD/USD have continued to surge throughout the entire week. EUR/USD is coming closer to the 1.3400 level and this should have a decent effect as resistance simply due to the psychology of the number and the recent surge. In addition to this, the pair is trading in a beautiful channel on the 4-hour time frame and a break of this to the downside is a clear cut indication for me, to get in on a short trade, specially if fundamentals will be the catalyst of this break; I don’t know if we will be looking at a trend change or more of a retracement but either way, it should be good for a couple of hundred pips in my opinion. AUD/USD just had another spike up during today’s Asian session, and it now trading around 0.9849, as we just had Employment Change from AU coming out better than expected with close to a 30K deviation. Just as on EUR/USD, the pair is trading in a bull channel on the 4-hour time frame, and I am definitely in short, when we have a clear break of the lower trend line. All in all, we often see Thursday before NFP to be a rather quiet day, as everyone is waiting patiently on the sideline for the supernova event of currency trading – Non-Farm Payroll. However, today might be an exception as the market has been very volatile the entire week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some more extreme price action today. We do have a lot of fundamental news releases today and several of them are definitely potential market movers, so stay cool, wait for confirmation, use proper money management and keep your stops tight. Remember, there is always another trade setup!

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NFP Whipsaw Friday – Oracle Trader Is the S…

Posted on 06. Sep, 2010 by Jakob.

Last Friday we had Non-Farm Payroll and a bunch of other news releases. The entire day was apparently affected by low liquidity and when Non-Farm Payroll numbers came out the market went crazy. With the better than expected number on NFP and the revision from last month, it was obviously very dollar positive and was represented with an immediate spike of 90 pips on EUR/JPY within seconds. I was trading the NFP with Oracle Trader just as recommended by Dustin pass, and set it up for EUR/JPY with a trigger deviation of 50 (if I remember correct). This triggered a long trade on EUR/JPY and although there was a bit of slippage, I did get a fill and was looking at profit within seconds. That is the beauty of this thing. You know exactly when to trade and how to trade, and a couple of minutes later you walk away with profit. I am not saying that this works wonders on all releases and with all brokers, but there are a lot of people claiming that spike trading is dead, and I have to disagree. It just requires a bit of work, but if you get everything set up the right way, it is definitely one of the greatest ways to trade the currency market. Check out Oracle Trader here.

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