Tag Archives: forex signal
EUR/USD – Potential Upside?
Posted on 18. Apr, 2011 by Jakob.
Shortly after London open this morning EUR/USD started to move down, and the press report from Greece stating they asked for restructuring of its debt gave the pair extra downside momentum. This was short-lived as news about a denial from Greece about the press report hit the wires, which made EUR/USD rally back to the level of its initial breakout. However, the pair did continue to dip lower throughout the day until 15.00 CET when we got news about S&P’s downgrade on outlook to the US sovereign credit rating. This gave us a quick but strong spike to the upside, and then the pair slowly continued to drop further down. About 15 minutes before London close, the pair started to head back up and it currently trades around the 1.4230 level.
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Cable – The Week Ahead
Posted on 17. Apr, 2011 by Jakob.
Just as on EUR/USD, Cable has not really given us a whole lot of movement throughout the week but did however, maintain a closing price on the weekly chart above 1.6270. The pair closed out for the week at 1.6323 and just as on EUR/USD, the weekly candle gives us an idea of possible downside.
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EUR/USD – The Week Ahead
Posted on 17. Apr, 2011 by Jakob.
Let’s first take a look at EUR/USD from a weekly perspective then we will see that the pair has formed a weekly candlestick looking something like a possible spinning top, give us a clue of potential downside. The range of last week was fairly narrow with no real follow through. A high of 1.4520 and the limited downside of 1.4360 gave us a choppy week for EUR/USD.
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Trading Forex – Daily Outlook April 13th
Posted on 13. Apr, 2011 by Jakob.
With the break of 1.45 on EUR/USD yesterday, further upside now seems to be just around the corner. Additionally we have fairly tight ranges on both EUR/USD and Cable which should prove to play out accordingly to a London Breakout kind of setup. Watch the video for the details.
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ECB Rate Hike – As Expected
Posted on 07. Apr, 2011 by Jakob.
Throughout the day we have seen a fairly resilient market with a lot of range-bound trading. A rate hike from ECB was widely expected and the actual release reflected the forecast with a hike of the key interest rate to 1.25 percent. This resulted in nothing besides a whipsaw on major pairs as an increase of 0.25% already had been priced in. 45 minutes later we had the press conference from Jean-Claude Trichet which was slightly more dovish compared to the previous press conference, which initially pushed EUR/USD down to just around the 1.4240 level. Shortly after US open the pair pushed back up and is currently trading at the 1.4290 level. Trichet did somewhat share the idea of an additional rate hike within the next couple of months but did simultaneously state that they have not decided whether this increase is the first of a series or not! So we have a rate hike which is clearly priced in at the current level, along with Portugal asking for bailout, recent Irish bank stress test which did not come out exactly positive – Needless to say that inflation is not the only concern at the moment. With recent fundamental releases out of US, and the current situation in EU, I favor downside on EUR/USD for the time being. Now for a position solely based on fundamentals, a swing trade is necessary. However, I think a short-term short position could play out nicely as well, due to current price action. Anyhow, for a swing position I would pay close attention to recent highs around 1.4350. I don’t see 1.45 being touched within the next couple of days without another strong fundamental release supporting further upside for now. So if we get a re-test of 1.4350 I would say a short with a 150 pip stop should be a fairly good bet. As always, I would not jump in immediately at a re-test but wait for momentum to take off and pay attention to price action and upcoming releases; this is definitely one setup I will pay attention to. In relation to “buy the rumor sell the news” – this seems pretty much the ideal situation in my opinion. What do you think?
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Trading Forex – Daily Outlook March 4th
Posted on 04. Mar, 2011 by Jakob.
Good morning traders. Here is my first attempt at a daily outlook in video format. I did cut it a bit short as I am fighting with a flu (so please, don’t comment on the quality). Please drop a comment below to let me know what you think, as I might start to do this on a regular basis. As always, trading forex is a risky business so play it safe and watch your money management! Specially on a day with Non-Farm Payroll.
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The Week Ahead
Posted on 22. Jan, 2011 by Jakob.
Another week has passed and in spite of ending this week the first loss of all signals issued since the beginning of 2011, it has still be an exciting week with a lot of indecision in the market. However, we did end the week with the final push on EUR/USD closer towards the 1.37 level which will be a key area for a lot of traders. Now, with the break of recent highs, I assume we are looking at possible further upside on EUR/USD, and in general, probably a bit more downside to the dollar. Fundamentally speaking, I am a bit more indecisive at the moment. Sure the successful bond auctions is EUR strengthening, but besides from the recent disappointing retails sales I still think that dollar strength will be back in the picture within a fairly short period of time, all depending on future news releases obviously. With that being said, let´s take a look at some possible scenarios for the week ahead.
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GBP/JPY and EUR/USD Update
Posted on 21. Jan, 2011 by Jakob.
So the short trade we had on GBP/JPY didn’t play out at planned. We did see around 50 – 55 pips of profit at the best before the pair turned on us. Luckily we had moved our stop loss to break even before it came all the way back up. Some of you guys did take partial off and some didn’t; I for one, didn’t so this was a big fat zero for me on this one. The simply reason why I didn’t lock in any profit was because of the very potential favorable risk:reward of the setup, but unfortunately it did not play out as I had hoped for. Looking at the current price on the pair, I am still pleased with nothing as the pair really has been on a rally since we closed out at break even.
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GBP/JPY Trend line break – Further Downside?
Posted on 19. Jan, 2011 by Jakob.
Take a look at the picture posted below. This is a 4-hour chart of GBP/JPY , where we have a fairly clear trend line break along with a 4-hour close below it. I have patiently been waiting for this break and close, and just a couple of minutes ago, I entered short on this pair. First and foremost we have the technical confirmation as stated above, but more important is the risk:reward of this trade, which is second to none! I got in with just around a 65 pip stop, placing me above the major trend line which has been working as previous support and now has somewhat confirmed itself as resistance, while also placing us above the recent swing high. In general we did see some initial weakness on cable along with JPY strength across the board (on a short time frame), which was the determining factor for me to get in. Right now we are seeing the pair back up a bit from my initial entry, but I am holding on, giving this some room to, hopefully work out. If you are looking for other possible setups, take a look at Liviu´s post, where he shares some great technical setups.
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Recap of Yesterday’s EUR/USD Trade
Posted on 18. Jan, 2011 by Jakob.
Yesterday I posted this idea for a possible short on EUR/USD, again a couple of reasons were lining up fairly well, but mainly because of a really good looking technical setup. As this was a short term play I didn’t really have time to send an email out about it, but I did post a short note on my FaceBook and LinkedIn groups, that I took a short trade on EUR/USD at 1.3325 with a stop loss of 40 pips. The pair flipped and started going in our direction pretty much immediately and as an update I wrote a note to take partial profits around 45 pips and move stop loss on the final half to break even. Now right after entry the pair did move down fairly quick but there should have a possibility to get in just around the same level. During the Asian session we were up at a max of just around 70 pips but unfortunately I was asleep (currently dealing with a hardcore flu) so when I got up this morning I got stopped out with the final half at break even. Let me know if you guys managed to get in on this one, and how things played out for you.
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