Profit Mongers – WednesdayTrading Signal 06-09-2010

Posted on 09. Jun, 2010 by Sir Pipsalot in Forex Signals, How To, Random Noise

Hey guys,

It looks like we’ve showed enough bottom forming to encourage buying EUR/USD on dips. In fact, a long here now at 1.1950 with a 100 pip SL and 150 pip TP looks alright as it is starting to channel with higher lows and higher highs with that run above 1.2000 today.

On stocks, it looks like we may get one more bounce before the big break, so I’m standing by my 1075-1085 sell range for S&P 500. Same trade from Monday:
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A break of 1035 on the S&P as I’ve been reiterating will be a major long term significant break that will confirm things enough to get me to enter a long term short trade looking for 100′s of pips of follow-through over the next several months.

In news Wednesday:

1700 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/Statement (0.25% hike to 2.75% expected) – 13 out of 15 economists surveyed are expecting the RBNZ to hike rates again for the first time since mid 2007. The futures market is pricing in a 28% chance they’ll keep rates unchanged. This hike was more of a sure bet weeks ago, but now with the current risk aversion and debt concerns plaguing the market, there’s a definite chance the RBNZ may disappoint.
–If they hike rates to 2.75% and issue a resolute statement that impies further hikes are coming soon, NZD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
–If they hike rates to 2.75% but imply their tightening path is not a sure bet and could be quite slow, NZD/USD will initially rally up but then sell off hard on the commentary, so sell into the rally or catch it turning south.
–If they leave rates unchanged at 2.50%, NZD/USD should sell off quickly for 50+ pips and the statement won’t be quite as crucial to the trade.

2130 AU Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (20K & 5.4% expected) – Careful on this one because both numbers are fairly equally important. I’d initially look towards the Employment Change figure (typically creates the initial spike), but then make sure Unemployment Rate agrees, and if it doesn’t, consider getting in the opposite direction.
–If Emp. comes out 40K or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
–If Emp. comes out 0K or negative, AUD/USD should fall 40-50 pips.
–If UR comes out at 5.6% or higher, AUD/USD should drop 40-50 pips.
–If UR comes out at 5.2% or lower, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
–If the two numbers point in conflicting directions, the move will likely be muted initially towards the Emp # then towards UR.

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Related posts:

1. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 09-02-2010
2. Profit Mongers – Tuesday Trading Signal 07-20-2010
3. Profit Mongers – Tuesday Trading Signal 12-07-2010
4. Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 07-28-2010
5. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 08-05-2010

Tags: Daily forex outlook, forex signal, Profit Mongers, ProfitMongers, Tradng Forex