Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 07-28-2010

Posted on 28. Jul, 2010 by Sir Pipsalot in Forex Signals, How To, Random Noise

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Hey folks,

On EUR/USD we saw a bit of a poke out above 1.3026, but it failed to hang on and ended up being nothing more than a stop run/failed breakout, so now on EUR/USD, we’re in no clearer of a spot than we were yesterday. At this point a trade lower through 1.2950 should see at least 60 pips of follow through to around 1.2890, while another breakout higher is a bit more ambiguous, but should still show some good buy-on-dips opportunities after the breakout solidifies.

USD/JPY worked out quite well with a solid 100 pip rally today, and we’re likely to see some further followthrough to the upside today. I took 1/2 profits on yesterday’s buy a bit shy of 88.00, and my final TP is around 89.00. If you’re looking for a fresh entry, a dip to around 87.40 should be a decent spot to get in long if you’re not in from yesterday or if you took all of your profits.

Stocks have consolidated a bit but have not dipped low enough to hit my 1100 scalp long. I still think a buy around 1100 with a 10-15 point SL and 15-25 point TP is a decent trade. As for the medium term, we will likely top out this retracement over the next 2 weeks (hopefully around 1130), and then start a very ambitious selloff, so I’ll probably look to position short again for a medium to long term trade late this week or early next week if the market is cooperating.

In news Tuesday, we saw US Consumer Confidence come in pretty much as expected, while AU CPI figures came in quite low and have led to 80+ pips of downside so far for both a great spike and afterspike trade thusfar. In news Wednesday:

0830 US Core Durable Goods m/m (0.4% expected) – Even when conflicting with the headline number, the Core (or Ex Transportation) figure should control the ultimate price action for a 30-40 pip trade on USD/JPY. Oftentimes the move from this number is a bit slower taking 20+ minutes to reach its potential.
If it comes out at 1.4% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.6% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

1700 NZ Interest Rate Decision (0.25% hike to 3.00% unanimously expected) – Last month NZ hiked rates for the first time since 2007, and they’re expected to follow that up with another hike this month. Assuming they do hike as expected, the price action could really go either way based on the strength of the statement and its implications for future rate hikes. The only easy trade here is if they keep rates steady or hike by more than expected.
If they hike by 0.50% or more, NZD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
If they keep rates unchanged, NZD/USD should drop 50+ pips.

Related posts:

1. Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 07-21-2010
2. Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 09-15-2010
3. Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 09-22-2010
4. Profit Mongers – Wednesday Trading Signal 08-18-2010
5. Profit Mongers – Tuesday Trading Signal 07-20-2010

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