Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 07-15-2010

Posted on 15. Jul, 2010 by Sir Pipsalot in Forex Signals, How To, Random Noise

Hey folks,

The medium to long term picture is still a bit murky in most markets. The EUR/USD seems to be in the final stages of this rally leg, and while we may be close to a lasting high, it could extend further as high as 1.3100 before finding relief, so I’m staying neutral here until the picture clears up. For shorter term trades, look to sell into pullbacks trading downside momentum on a break below 1.2680 while buying pullbacks to trade upside momentum is fine as long as we’re above the 40 sma on the hourly.

Stocks may have topped out today around the max time and price targets for retracement I discussed in yesterday’s signal, so I’m still bearish on all timeframes, but a push above 1102 Thursday will be enough to force me into a much more neutral stance. Even if it’s only temporary, this rally is well due for a retracement.

In news Wednesday, we saw UK Claimant Count Change come out too close to expectations, while US Retail Sales came in a bit too close as well. In news Thursday:

0830, 0915, 1000 – Various small US Reports – None of these are real movers, but it’s a very data heavy NY morning with 8 US economic numbers coming out at those various times this morning. If a trend starts to develop by 0800, look for a countertrend surprise on one of these to give a nice pullback to get the other way for a trend following trade.

1845 NZ CPI q/q (0.5% expected) – This trade typically hits about a 40 pip target give or take 5 pips. Sometimes that comes all in the first 1-2 minutes, and other times it takes a good 5-10 minutes to reach a peak around there. While the triggers listed below call for a 0.3%, 0.2% should work as long as the y/y figure has a 0.2% deviation in the same direction as well.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 40 pips.

Profit Mongers – Friday Trading Signal 07-09-2010

Related posts:

1. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 09-02-2010
2. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 09-23-2010
3. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 08-05-2010
4. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 09-09-2010
5. Profit Mongers – Thursday Trading Signal 07-22-2010

Tags: Daily forex outlook, forex signal, forex trading, Profit Mongers, ProfitMongers, Sir Pipsalot, Trading Forex